Characterization of Age and Polarity at Onset in Bipolar Disorder
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background Studying the phenotypic and genetic characteristics of age and polarity at onset (AAO, PAO) in bipolar disorder (BD) can provide new insights into disease pathology and facilitate the development of screening tools. Aims To examine the genetic architecture of AAO and PAO and their association with BD disease characteristics. Methods Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) and polygenic score (PGS) analyses of AAO (N=12977) and PAO (N=6773) were conducted in BD patients of 34 cohorts and a replication sample (N=2237). The association of onset with disease characteristics was investigated in two of these cohorts. Results Earlier AAO was associated with an increased risk of psychotic symptoms, suicidality, and fewer episodes. A depressive onset correlated with lifetime suicidality and a manic onset with delusions and manic episodes. Systematic differences in AAO between cohorts and continents of origin were observed. This was also reflected in SNV-based heritability estimates, with higher heritabilities for stricter onset definitions. Increased polygenic scores for autism spectrum disorder (β=-0.34 years, SE=0.08), major depression (β=-0.34 years, SE=0.08), schizophrenia (β=-0.39 years, SE=0.08), and educational attainment (β=-0.31 years, SE=0.08) were associated with an earlier AAO. The AAO GWAS identified one significant locus, but this finding did not replicate. Neither GWAS nor PGS analyses yielded significant associations with PAO. Conclusions AAO and PAO are associated with indicators of BD severity. Individuals with an earlier onset show an increased polygenic liability for a broad spectrum of psychiatric traits. Systematic differences in AAO across cohorts, continents, and phenotype definitions introduce significant heterogeneity, affecting analyses. RELEVANCE STATEMENT In the largest study to systematically characterize age at onset (N=12977) and polarity at onset (N=6773) in bipolar disorder, we describe an association between illness onset characteristics and indicators of severity, confirming their clinical relevance. Our study shows that that early illness onset is associated with genetic liability for a broad range of psychiatric disorders. However, we also highlight systematic differences in age at onset across cohorts, continents, and phenotype definitions. This heterogeneity results in reduced heritability and affects genetic analyses, underscoring the need for the development of standardized phenotype definitions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".