HAMdetector: A Bayesian regression model that integrates information to detect HLA-associated mutations
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Motivation A key process in anti-viral adaptive immunity is that the Human Leukocyte Antigen system (HLA) presents epitopes as Major Histocompatibility Complex I (MHC I) protein-peptide complexes on cell surfaces and in this way alerts CD8 + cytotoxic T-Lymphocytes (CTLs). This pathway exerts strong selection pressure on viruses, favoring viral mutants that escape recognition by the HLA/CTL system, e.g. by point mutations that decrease binding of viral peptides to MHC I. Naturally, such immune escape mutations often emerge in highly variable viruses, e.g. HIV or HBV, as HLA-associated mutations (HAMs), specific to the host HLA alleles and its MHC I proteins. The reliable identification of HAMs is not only important for understanding viral genomes and their evolution, but it also impacts the development of broadly effective anti-viral treatments and vaccines against variable viruses. By their very nature HAMs are amenable to detection by statistical methods in paired sequence / HLA data. However, HLA alleles are very polymorphic in the human host population which makes the available data relatively sparse and noisy. Under these circumstances, one way to optimize HAM detection is to integrate all relevant information in a coherent model. Bayesian inference offers a principled approach to achieve this. Results We present a new regression model for the detection of HAMs. As we choose a Bayesian approach we can include the novel sparsity-inducing priors, and we obtain easily interpretable quantitative information on HAM candidates. The basic model can be extended to include prior information relevant to HAM detection, which we demonstrate by integrating predictions of epitope affinities to MHC I, predictions of epitope peptide processing, and computation of phylogenetic background. This integrative method improves performance in HAM detection considerably over state-of-the-art methods. Availability The source code of this software is available at https://github.com/HAMdetector/Escape.jl under a permissive MIT license. Contact daniel.habermann@uni-due.de , daniel.hoffmann@uni-due.de
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".