Natural History of Untreated Retinoblastoma
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Treatment abandonment is a leading cause of death in children with retinoblastoma worldwide. We studied children who abandoned treatment upfront at diagnosis to delineate the natural history of untreated retinoblastoma. Studied were children who received no treatment, diagnosed between 2007 and 2017 at 29 Chinese centers. Data were retrospectively collected from medical chart reviews and interviews with each patient’s family. During the study period, 44 children received no treatment after diagnosis of retinoblastoma. Clinical or radiologic evidence of orbital extension was available for 25 children, and radiologic evidence of systemic metastasis was available for 12 children. Median times from diagnosis of intraocular tumor to orbital disease was 13.7 months, orbital disease to metastasis was 2.6 months, and metastasis to death was 2.0 months. Children with brain metastasis had shorter survival than those with metastasis to other sites (median 1.0 vs. 3.1 months; p = 0.015). Overall, 36% of patients died within 12 months of diagnosis, 77% within 24 months, 95% within 36 months and 100% within 48 months. While multiple factors influence refusal of treatment, insights into the natural history of retinoblastoma derived from real-world evidence can inform clinicians and parents that retinoblastoma is life-threatening and encourage urgent treatment at diagnosis.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".