Changes in extreme ocean wave heights under 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C global warming
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study inspects the global changes in seasonal extreme ocean wave heights under different levels of global warming (1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C) based on statistical wave projections derived from CMIP5 multi-model simulations. The results show robust increases in wave extremes up to 15% (∼1 m) over Southern Hemisphere high latitudes and tropical Pacific, particularly at 3 °C warming. Strong seasonality is observed, especially for the North Pacific. Under higher warming, stronger increases are identified in both amplitude and area of extreme wave heights. The change in magnitude translates into shorter return intervals of extreme wave events in a warmer world, particularly at 3 °C warming. Differences between 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds reveal potential benefits of limiting global warming over large regions of global ocean. Strong inter-model relationships indicate that wave height increases are associated with intensified climate mode variability, particularly the Southern Annular Mode and El Niño–Southern Oscillation, in a warmer world. An important implication is the potential impact of increased wave extremes on West Antarctic ice shelves with respect to calving and associated loss of buttressing, which would facilitate sea level rise in a warmer world.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it