Vertical Land Motion as a Driver of Coastline Changes on a Deltaic System in the Colombian Caribbean
Bibliographic record
Abstract
To face and properly mitigate coastal changes at a local level, it is necessary to recognize and characterize the specific processes affecting a coastline. Some of these processes are local (e.g., sediment starvation), while others are regional (e.g., relative sea-level change) or global (e.g., eustatic sea-level rise). Long tide gauge records help establish sea-level trends for a region that accounts for global (eustatic, steric) and regional (isostatic) sea-level changes. Local sea-level changes are also the product of vertical land motion (VLM), varying depending on tectonic, sedimentological, and anthropogenic factors. We investigate the role of coastal land subsidence in the present-day dynamics of an abandoned delta in the Colombian Caribbean. Satellite images and synthetic aperture radar acquisitions are used to assess decadal-scale coastline changes and subsidence rates for the period 2007–2021. We found that subsidence rates are highly variable alongshore. Local subsidence rates of up to −1.0 cm/yr correspond with an area of erosion rates of up to −15 m/yr, but coastal erosion also occurs in sectors where subsidence was not detected. The results highlight that local coastline changes are influenced by multiple, interacting drivers, including sand supply, coastline orientation and engineering structures, and that subsidence alone does not explain the high rates of coastal erosion along the study area. By the end of the century, ongoing coastal erosion rates of up to −25 m/yr, annual rates of subsidence of about −1 cm/yr, and current trends of global sea-level rise are expected to increase flooding levels and jeopardize the existence of the deltaic barrier island.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".