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Record W3187462343 · doi:10.21203/rs.2.19635/v1

Seasonal variation and change trends for quit smoking: evidence from Internet search engine query data

2019· preprint· en· W3187462343 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Fang Wang, Dingtao Hu, Xiaoqi Lou, Nana Meng, Qiaomei Xie, Man Zhang, Yanfeng Zou

Bibliographic record

VenueResearch Square (Research Square) · 2019
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicSmoking Behavior and Cessation
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersNational Natural Science Foundation of China
KeywordsVariation (astronomy)The InternetSearch engineGeographyComputer scienceInformation retrievalWorld Wide WebAstrophysicsPhysics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Background: The outcomes of smoking have generated considerable clinical interest in recent years. Although people from different countries are more interested to the topic of quit smoking during the winter, few studies have tested this hypothesis. The current study aimed to quantify public interest in quit smoking via Google. Methods: We use Google Trends to obtain the Internet search query volume for terms relating to quit smoking for major northern and southern hemisphere countries in this research. Normally search volumes for the term “quit smoking + stop smoking + smoking cessation” were retrieved within the USA, the UK, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand and Australia from January 2004 to December 2018. Seasonal effects were investigated using cosinor analysis and seasonal decomposition of time series models. Results: Significant seasonal variation patterns in those search terms were revealed by cosinor analysis and demonstrated by the evidence from Google Trends analysis in the representative countries including the USA ( p cos = 2.36×10 -7 ), the UK ( p cos < 2.00×10 -16 ), Canada ( p cos < 2.00×10 -16 ), Ireland ( p cos <2.00×10 -16 ) ,Australia ( p cos = 5.13×10 -6 ) and New Zealand ( p cos = 4.87×10 -7 ). Time series plots emphasized the consistency of seasonal trends with peaks in winter / late autumn by repeating in nearly all years. The overall trend of search volumes, observed by dynamic series analysis, declined from 2004 to 2018. Conclusions: The preliminary evidence from Google Trends search tool showed a significant seasonal variation and decreasing trend for the RSV of quit smoking. Our novel findings in smoking cessation epidemiology need to be verified with further studies, and the mechanisms underlying these findings must be clarified.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.024
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.006
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow), Scholarly communication, Research integrity, Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesResearch integrity
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.335
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0240.006
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0030.002
Science and technology studies0.0010.001
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0020.008
Research integrity0.0010.007
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.473
GPT teacher head0.508
Teacher spread0.035 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.

Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2019
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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