Residential Electric Load Forecasting via Attentive Transfer of Graph Neural Networks
Bibliographic record
Abstract
An accurate short-term electric load forecasting is critical for modern electric power systems' safe and economical operation. Electric load forecasting can be formulated as a multi-variate time series problem. Residential houses in the same neighborhood may be affected by similar factors and share some latent spatial dependencies. However, most of the existing works on electric load forecasting fail to explore such dependencies. In recent years, graph neural networks (GNNs) have shown impressive success in modeling such dependencies. However, such GNN based models usually would require a large amount of training data. We may have a minimal amount of data available to train a reliable forecasting model for houses in a new neighborhood area. At the same time, we may have a large amount of historical data collected from other houses that can be leveraged to improve the new neighborhood's prediction performance. In this paper, we propose an attentive transfer learning-based GNN model that can utilize the learned prior knowledge to improve the learning process in a new area. The transfer process is achieved by an attention network, which generically avoids negative transfer by leveraging knowledge from multiple sources. Extensive experiments have been conducted on real-world data sets. Results have shown that the proposed framework can consistently outperform baseline models in different areas.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".