Paleoseismological Findings at a New Trench Indicate the 1714 M8.1 Earthquake Ruptured the Main Frontal Thrust Over all the Bhutan Himalaya
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The 1714 Bhutan earthquake was one of the largest in the Himalaya in the last millennium. We show that the surface rupture caused by this earthquake extended further to the east than previously known, it was at least 175 km long, with slip exceeding 11 m at our study site. The age of the surface rupture was constrained by a combination of radiocarbon and traditional optically stimulated luminescence dating of affected river sediments. Computations using empirical scaling relationships, fitting historical observations and paleoseismic data, yielded a plausible magnitude of Mw 8.1 ± 0.4 and placed the hypocentre of the 1714 Bhutan earthquake on the flat segment of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), the basal décollement of the Himalayan orogen. Calculations of Coulomb stress transfer indicate that great earthquakes along the leading part of the MHT would cause surface rupture. In contrast, distal earthquakes may not immediately trigger surface rupture, although they would increase the stresses in the leading part of the MHT, facilitating future surface-rupturing earthquakes. Frontal earthquakes would also transfer stress into the modern foreland basin facilitating southward propagation of the MHT as a blind basal décollement. In conclusion, studies of surface-rupturing events alone likely underestimate the seismic slip along the Himalayan megathrust.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".