Detection of COVID-19 case clusters in Québec, May–October 2020
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: The Quebec Public Health Institute (INSPQ) was mandated to develop an automated tool for detecting space-time COVID-19 case clusters to assist regional public health authorities in identifying situations that require public health interventions. This article aims to describe the methodology used and to document the main outcomes achieved. METHODS: New COVID-19 cases are supplied by the "Trajectoire de santé publique" information system, geolocated to civic addresses and then aggregated by day and dissemination area. To target community-level clusters, cases identified as residents of congregate living settings are excluded from the cluster detection analysis. Detection is performed using the space-time scan statistic and Poisson statistical model, and implemented in the SaTScan software. Information on detected clusters is disseminated daily via an online interactive mapping interface. RESULTS: The number of clusters detected tracked with the number of new cases. Slightly more than 4900 statistically significant (p ≤ 0.01) space-time clusters were detected over 14 health regions from May to October 2020. The Montréal region was the most affected. CONCLUSION: Considering the objective of timely cluster detection, the use of near-real-time health surveillance data of varying quality over time and by region constitutes an acceptable compromise between timeliness and data quality. This tool serves to supplement the epidemiologic investigations carried out by regional public health authorities for purposes of COVID-19 management and prevention.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".