Weakly supervised learning on unannotated H&E‐stained slides predicts <scp><i>BRAF</i></scp> mutation in thyroid cancer with high accuracy
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Deep neural networks (DNNs) that predict mutational status from H&E slides of cancers can enable inexpensive and timely precision oncology. Although expert knowledge is reliable for annotating regions informative of malignancy and other known histologic patterns (strong supervision), it is unreliable for identifying regions informative of mutational status. This poses a serious impediment to obtaining higher prognostic accuracy and discovering new knowledge of pathobiology. We used a weakly supervised learning technique to train a DNN to predict BRAF V600E mutational status, determined using DNA testing, in H&E-stained images of thyroid cancer tissue without regional annotations. Our discovery cohort was a tissue microarray of only 85 patients from a single hospital. On a large independent external cohort of 444 patients from other hospitals, the trained model gave an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.98 (95% CI 0.97-1.00), which is much higher than the previously reported results for detecting any mutation using H&E by DNNs trained using strong supervision. We also developed a visualization technique that can automatically highlight regions the DNN found most informative for predicting mutational status. Our visualization is spatially granular and highly specific in highlighting strong negative and positive regions and moves us toward explainable artificial intelligence. Using t-tests, we confirmed that the proportions of follicular or papillary histology and oncocytic cytology, as noted for each patient by a pathologist who was blinded to the mutational status, were significantly different between mutated and wildtype patients. However, based solely on these features noted by the pathologist, a logistic regression classifier gave an average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.78 in five-fold cross-validation, which is much lower than that obtained using the DNN. These results highlight the potential of weakly supervised learning for training DNN models for problems where the informative visual patterns and their locations are not known a priori. © 2021 The Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".