Derivation of a prototype asthma attack risk scale centred on blood eosinophils and exhaled nitric oxide
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Reduction of the risk of asthma attacks is a major goal of current asthma management. We propose to derive a risk scale predicting asthma attacks based on the blood eosinophil count and exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO). Biomarker-stratified trial-level attack rates were extracted and pooled from the control arms of the Novel START, CAPTAIN, QUEST, Benralizumab Phase 2b, PATHWAY, STRATOS 1-2 and DREAM trials (n=3051). These were used to derive rate ratios and the predicted asthma attack rate for different patient groups. The resultant prototype risk scale shows potential to predict asthma attacks, which may be prevented by anti-inflammatory treatment.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it