Innovation in unruptured intracranial aneurysm coiling: At which price or efficacy are new technologies cost-effective?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIA) are increasingly being treated by endovascular coiling as opposed to open surgical clipping. Unfortunately, endovascular coiling imparts an approximate 25% recanalization rate, leading to additional procedures and increased rupture risk. While a new health technology innovation (HTI) that reduces this recanalization rate would benefit patients, few advancements have been made. We aim to determine whether cost-effectiveness has been a barrier to HTI. METHODS: A probabilistic Markov model was constructed from the healthcare payer perspective to compare standard endovascular treatment of UIA to standard treatment plus the addition of a HTI adjunct. Costs were measured in 2018 USD and health outcomes were measured in quality-adjusted life-years (QALY). In the base case, the HTI was a theoretical mesenchymal stem cell therapy which reduced the aneurysm recanalization rate by 50% and cost $10,000 per procedure. All other model inputs were derived from the published scientific literature. RESULTS: Based on the model results, we found that for a given HTI price (y) and relative risk reduction of aneurysm recanalization (x), the HTI was always cost-effective if the following equation was satisfied: y ≤ 20268 ∙ x, using a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000 per QALY. The uncertainty surrounding whether an aneurysm would recanalize was a significant driver within the model. When the uncertainty around the risk of aneurysm recanalization was eliminated, the 10-year projected additional benefit to the United States healthcare system was calculated to be $113,336,994. CONCLUSION: Cost-effectiveness does not appear to be a barrier to innovation in reducing the recanalization rate of UIA treated by endovascular coil embolization. Our model can now be utilized by academia and industry to accentuate economically feasible HTI and by healthcare payers to calculate their maximum willingness-to-pay for a new technology. Our results also indicate that predicting a patient's baseline risk of aneurysm recanalization is a critical area of future research.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.044 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".