Evolutionary trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 and emerging variants
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The emergence of a novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and more recently, the independent evolution of multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants has generated renewed interest in virus evolution and cross-species transmission. While all known human coronaviruses (HCoVs) are speculated to have originated in animals, very little is known about their evolutionary history and factors that enable some CoVs to co-exist with humans as low pathogenic and endemic infections (HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63, HCoV-OC43, HCoV-HKU1), while others, such as SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 have evolved to cause severe disease. In this review, we highlight the origins of all known HCoVs and map positively selected for mutations within HCoV proteins to discuss the evolutionary trajectory of SARS-CoV-2. Furthermore, we discuss emerging mutations within SARS-CoV-2 and variants of concern (VOC), along with highlighting the demonstrated or speculated impact of these mutations on virus transmission, pathogenicity, and neutralization by natural or vaccine-mediated immunity.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".