LSTM-based Multi-Step SOC Forecasting of Battery Energy Storage in Grid Ancillary Services
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Battery energy storage (BES) participation in the grid ancillary services markets is increasing rapidly in recent years. To facilitate optimal participation, the need for accurate BES state-of-charge (SOC) forecasting is indispensable. In grid ancillary services, the development of SOC forecasting models should deal with uncertainties and corresponding stochastic processes that determine the BES SOC periodically. Several traditional and state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) techniques, ranging from decision-tree to deep learning methods, were used to solve this problem. However, developing a multi-step SOC forecasting model remains a challenge in this subject that is essential for optimal BES economic dispatch and unit commitment. Taking advantage of the Long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning and its variants techniques which are proven to be a robust method for predicting sequentially dependent data in the time-series domain, this paper proposes LSTM-based multi-step SOC forecasting for BES operating in frequency regulation. Various developed models, i.e., Vanilla-LSTM, Vanilla-Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), Bidirectional-LSTM (Bi-LSTM), and Bi-GRU, are evaluated using real-world datasets. The evaluation results show that the developed models outperform the existing methods in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) evaluation metrics.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".