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Record W3191833266 · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-777952/v1

Winner and Loser in Terms of the FTAs and the Trade War: Case Study of the Japanese Market

2021· preprint· en· W3191833266 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Onur Biyik

Bibliographic record

VenueResearch Square · 2021
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicGlobal trade and economics
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsTrade warProtectionismInternational tradeEconomicsTariffInternational economicsFree tradeTrade barrierContext (archaeology)International free trade agreementWelfareChinaPolitical scienceGeographyMarket economy

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract The US raised trade war issues under protecting national security against China in July 2018. Likewise, the trade war has spread out across other regions such as India, the EU, Canada, Mexico, Russia, and Turkey through an additional tariff on products such as steel and aluminum. Clearly, the uncertainty has shown an increase since this friction created a pessimistic environment for the future world economy and did hurt economic development. Therefore, it has had negative effects for welfare -especially those (low-income consumers) who prefer to buy cheap imported goods. Contrary to protectionism, Japan has signed new FTAs with the EU and the US. In that context, this paper quantitatively examines the Japanese new FTAs under the trade war. It employs the general equilibrium approaches to not only investigate the economic structure of each country trade flow but also address the FTAs and the impacts of the welfare and sectoral value chains of the trade war. Essentially, the paper scenarios depend on the official list of the FTAs and the trade war-related goods. As a result of the FTAs under the trade war, the new Japanese trade agreements have provided some opportunities for its market as well as targeted countries. For instance, the Japanese benefit from the EU-Japan FTA would be $4.11 billion U.S.D. and the EU would gain $768 million U.S.D. within the 15-year. Moreover, the US not only would get a huge advance but also could get back its export market share from Pacific island nations in Japan when Japan would eliminate the tariff on concerned sectors for the US goods. For example, the US and Japan would improve their welfare by $4.09 billion U.S.D. and $398 million U.S.D., respectively through the limited USA-Japan FTA. That is, the US market would comparatively earn much more than Japan. Lastly, those who participate in the FTAs would boost their GDP, welfare, and value-added (productivity). For example, not only would Japan provide some opportunities for its market and then enhance its welfare and GDP, but also the EU and the US would boost their macro variables. However, from the perspective of the other regions/countries, those regions/countries which are not in the trade deal could lose their export market share in Japan, the US, and the UE and would, therefore, have a negative impact on their GDP and welfare.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.003
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.030
Threshold uncertainty score0.060

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.003
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0020.002
Science and technology studies0.0060.003
Scholarly communication0.0040.004
Open science0.0010.002
Research integrity0.0030.003
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0140.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.099
GPT teacher head0.304
Teacher spread0.205 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2021
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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