In Theory and Practice - On the Rate of Convergence of Implementable Neural Network Regression Estimates
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In theory, recent results in nonparametric regression show that neural network estimates are able to achieve good rates of convergence provided suitable assumptions on the structure of the regression function are imposed. However, these theoretical analyses cannot explain the practical success of neural networks since the theoretically studied estimates are defined by minimizing the empirical L_2 risk over a class of neural networks and in practice, solving this kind of minimization problem is not feasible. Consequently, the neural networks examined in theory cannot be implemented as they are defined. This means that neural network in applications differ from the ones that are analyzed theoretically. In this thesis we narrow the gap between theory and practice. We deal with neural network regression estimates for (p,C)-smooth regression functions m that satisfy a projection pursuit model. We construct three implementable neural network estimates and show that each of them achieve up to a logarithmic factor the optimal univariate rate of convergence. Firstly, for univariate regression functions with p contained in [-1/2,1] we construct a neural network estimate with one hidden layer where the weights are learned via gradient descent. The starting weights are randomly chosen from an interval independently of the data. The interval is large enough to guarantee that the estimate is close to a piecewise constant approximation. Secondly, for multivariate regression functions with p contained in (0,1] we construct a neural network estimate with one hidden layer where the weights are learned via gradient descent. The initial weights are chosen from specific intervals dependently on the data and the projection directions. This choice guarantees that the estimate is close to a piecewise constant approximation. The projection directions are repeatedly chosen randomly. Lastly, for multivariate regression functions with p>0 we construct a multilayer neural network estimate. The value of the inner weights are prescribed dependently on the projection directions by a new approximation result for a projection pursuit model by piecewise polynomials. The outer weights are chosen by solving a linear equation system. The projection directions are repeatedly chosen randomly. Since we are able to show a rate of convergence that is independent of the dimension of the data our second and third estimates are able to circumvent the curse of dimensionality.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".