Development of a machine learning algorithm for predicting in-hospital and 1-year mortality after traumatic spinal cord injury
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND CONTEXT: Current prognostic tools such as the Injury Severity Score (ISS) that predict mortality following trauma do not adequately consider the unique characteristics of traumatic spinal cord injury (tSCI). PURPOSE: Our aim was to develop and validate a prognostic tool that can predict mortality following tSCI. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective review of a prospective cohort study. PATIENT SAMPLE: Data was collected from 1245 persons with acute tSCI who were enrolled in the Rick Hansen Spinal Cord Injury Registry between 2004 and 2016. OUTCOME MEASURES: In-hospital and 1-year mortality following tSCI. METHODS: Machine learning techniques were used on patient-level data (n=849) to develop the Spinal Cord Injury Risk Score (SCIRS) that can predict mortality based on age, neurological level and completeness of injury, AOSpine classification of spinal column injury morphology, and Abbreviated Injury Scale scores. Validation of the SCIRS was performed by testing its accuracy in an independent validation cohort (n=396) and comparing its performance to the ISS, a measure which is used to predict mortality following general trauma. RESULTS: For 1-year mortality prediction, the values for the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) for the development cohort were 0.84 (standard deviation=0.029) for the SCIRS and 0.55 (0.041) for the ISS. For the validation cohort, AUC values were 0.86 (0.051) for the SCIRS and 0.71 (0.074) for the ISS. For in-hospital mortality, AUC values for the development cohort were 0.87 (0.028) and 0.60 (0.050) for the SCIRS and ISS, respectively. For the validation cohort, AUC values were 0.85 (0.054) for the SCIRS and 0.70 (0.079) for the ISS. CONCLUSIONS: The SCIRS can predict in-hospital and 1-year mortality following tSCI more accurately than the ISS. The SCIRS can be used in research to reduce bias in estimating parameters and can help adjust for coefficients during model development. Further validation using larger sample sizes and independent datasets is needed to assess its reliability and to evaluate using it as an assessment tool to guide clinical decision-making and discussions with patients and families.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.017 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".