Marine Aerosol Records of Arctic Sea‐Ice and Polynya Variability From New Ellesmere and Devon Island Firn Cores, Nunavut, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Sea ice plays a critical role in the Earth’s climate system, including influencing ocean heat uptake, reflecting solar radiation, and contributing to dense water formation. Instrumental records of polar sea ice extent are only available since 1979, however. The short length of such records also limits our knowledge of polynya variability, which can reflect large‐scale atmospheric and climate changes. Ice core proxy records can extend these observations, but require further development and regional validation. We compare chloride and methanesulfonic acid concentrations from two new firn cores from the Canadian Arctic with satellite‐derived observations of regional sea‐ice concentration and polynya variability from 2002 to 2014. The sub‐annual resolution of these cores allows for detailed investigation of how regional sea‐ice concentration is recorded in the ice at Prince of Wales Icefield (POW), Ellesmere Island and Devon Ice Cap (DIC), Devon Island, Nunavut. Over the period 2002–2014 we find that the primary sources of marine aerosols to POW are polynyas within Arctic Canada and the Canada basin of the Arctic Ocean, whereas the primary sources of marine aerosols to DIC are a broader region of the Queen Elizabeth Islands, Baffin Bay, and the Arctic Ocean. Marine aerosol sources to the two core sites are distinct, reflecting different moisture source regions and, likely, differing transport pathways. Air mass back trajectory results support the satellite‐derived results. Glaciochemical records from this dynamic, warming region may provide a proxy for reconstructing North Water polynya and other regional polynya and shore‐lead variability prior to the satellite era.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".