Seasonal strength of terrestrial net ecosystem CO2 exchange from North America is underestimated in global inverse modeling
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We evaluate terrestrial net ecosystem-atmosphere exchange (NEE) of CO2 from nine global inversion systems that inferred fluxes from four CO2 observational sources. We use 98 flights in the central and eastern U.S. from the ACT-America aircraft mission to conduct this sub-continental, seasonal-scale evaluation. We use Lagrangian particle dispersion modeling (FLEXPARTv10.4-ERA-Interim) to compare observed and simulated regional biogenic CO2 mole fractions. We find a positive bias (modeled CO2 > observed) in the summer and negative bias (modeled CO2 < observed) in dormant seasons across most flux products, suggesting that the seasonal strength of CO2 NEE is underestimated in these inverse models. Fluxes inferred from OCO-2 v9 satellite land nadir/glint observations yield an error level that is similar to fluxes inferred from in-situ data. Large bias errors are observed in the croplands and eastern forests. Future experiments are needed to determine if these seasonal biases are associated with biases in net annual flux estimates.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".