Above and Beyond Age: Prediction of Major Postoperative Adverse Events in Head and Neck Surgery
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Major postoperative adverse events (MPAEs) following head and neck surgery are not infrequent and lead to significant morbidity. The objective of this study was to ascertain which factors are most predictive of MPAEs in patients undergoing head and neck surgery. METHODS: A cohort study was carried out based on data from patients registered in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) from 2006 to 2018. All patients undergoing non-ambulatory head and neck surgery based on Current Procedural Terminology codes were included. Perioperative factors were evaluated to predict MPAEs within 30-days of surgery. Age was classified as both a continuous and categorical variable. Retained factors were classified by attributable fraction and C-statistic. Multivariate regression and supervised machine learning models were used to quantify the contribution of age as a predictor of MPAEs. RESULTS: A total of 43 701 operations were analyzed with 5106 (11.7%) MPAEs. The results of supervised machine learning indicated that prolonged surgeries, anemia, free tissue transfer, weight loss, wound classification, hypoalbuminemia, wound infection, tracheotomy (concurrent with index head and neck surgery), American Society of Anesthesia (ASA) class, and sex as most predictive of MPAEs. On multivariate regression, ASA class (21.3%), hypertension on medication (15.8%), prolonged operative time (15.3%), sex (13.1%), preoperative anemia (12.8%), and free tissue transfer (9%) had the largest attributable fractions associated with MPAEs. Age was independently associated with MPAEs with an attributable fraction ranging from 0.6% to 4.3% with poor predictive ability (C-statistic 0.60). CONCLUSION: Surgical, comorbid, and frailty-related factors were most predictive of short-term MPAEs following head and neck surgery. Age alone contributed a small attributable fraction and poor prediction of MPAEs. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 3.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".