Phase Transitions for High-Dimensional Quadratic Discriminant Analysis with Rare and Weak Signals
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Consider a two-class classification problem where we observe samples $(X_i, Y_i)$ for i = 1, ..., n, $X_i \in \mathcal{R}^p$ and $Y_i \in \{0, 1\}$. Given $Y_i = k$, $X_i$ is assumed to follow a multivariate normal distribution with mean $\mu_k \in \mathcal{R}^k$ and covariance matrix $\Sigma_k$, $k=0,1$. Supposing a new sample $X$ from the same mixture is observed, our goal is to estimate its class label $Y$. The difficulty lies in the rarity and weakness of the differences in the mean vector and in the covariance matrices. By incorporating the quadratic terms $\Omega_k=\Sigma^{-1}_k$ from the two classes, we formulate the likelihood-based classification as a Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (QDA) problem. Hence, we propose the QDA classification method with the feature-selection step. Compared with recent work on the linear case (LDA) with $\Omega_k$ assumed to be the same, the current setting is much more general. The numerical results from real datasets support our theories and demonstrate the necessity and superiority of using QDA over LDA for classification under the rare and weak model. We set up a rare and weak model for both the mean vector and the precision matrix. With the model parameters, we clearly depict the boundary separating the region of successful classification from the region of unsuccessful classification of the newly proposed QDA with a feature-selection method, for the two cases that $\mu_k$ is either known or unknown. We also explore the region of successful classification of the QDA approach when both $\mu_k$ and $\Omega_k$ are unknown. The results again suggest that the quadratic term has a major influence over the LDA for the classification decision and classification accuracy.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it