Predicting COVID-19 Incidences from Patients’ Viral Load using Deep-Learning
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The transmission of the contagious COVID-19 is known to be highly dependent on individual viral dynamics. Since the cycle threshold (Ct) is the only semi-quantitative viral measurement that could reflect infectivity, we utilized Ct values to forecast COVID-19 incidences. Our COVID-19 cohort (n=9531), retrieved from a single representative cross-sectional virology test center in Lebanon, revealed that low daily mean Ct values are followed by an increase in the number of national positive COVID-19 cases. A subset of the data was used to develop a deep neural network model, tune its hyperparameters, and optimize the weights for minimal mean square error of prediction. The final model’s accuracy is reported by comparing its predictions with an unseen dataset. Our model was the first to capture the interaction of the previously reported Ct values with the upcoming number of COVID-19 cases and any temporal effects that arise from population dynamics. Our model was deployed as a publicly available and easy-to-use estimator to facilitate prospective validation. Our model has potential application in predicting COVID-19 incidences in other countries and in assessing post-vaccination policies. Aside from emphasizing patient responsibility in adopting early testing practices, this study proposed and validated viral load measurement as a rigid input that can enhance outcomes and precision of viral disease predicting models.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".