Low exposure long-baseline neutrino oscillation sensitivity of the DUNE experiment

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) will produce world-leading neutrino oscillation measurements over the lifetime of the experiment. In this work, we explore DUNE's sensitivity to observe charge-parity violation (CPV) in the neutrino sector, and to resolve the mass ordering, for exposures of up to 100 kiloton-megawatt-calendar years (kt-MW-CY), where calendar years include an assumption of 57% accelerator uptime based on past accelerator performance at Fermilab. The analysis includes detailed uncertainties on the flux prediction, the neutrino interaction model, and detector effects. We demonstrate that DUNE will be able to unambiguously resolve the neutrino mass ordering at a $4\ensuremath{\sigma}$ ($5\ensuremath{\sigma}$) level with a 66 (100) kt-MW-CY far detector exposure, and has the ability to make strong statements at significantly shorter exposures depending on the true value of other oscillation parameters, with a median sensitivity of $3\ensuremath{\sigma}$ for almost all true ${\ensuremath{\delta}}_{\mathrm{CP}}$ values after only 24 kt-MW-CY. We also show that DUNE has the potential to make a robust measurement of CPV at a $3\ensuremath{\sigma}$ level with a 100 kt-MW-CY exposure for the maximally CP-violating values ${\ensuremath{\delta}}_{\mathrm{CP}}=\ifmmode\pm\else\textpm\fi{}\ensuremath{\pi}/2$. Additionally, the dependence of DUNE's sensitivity on the exposure taken in neutrino-enhanced and antineutrino-enhanced running is discussed. An equal fraction of exposure taken in each beam mode is found to be close to optimal when considered over the entire space of interest.

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