Fair Conformal Predictors for Applications in Medical Imaging
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Deep learning has the potential to automate many clinically useful tasks in medical imaging. However translation of deep learning into clinical practice has been hindered by issues such as lack of the transparency and interpretability in these ``black box'' algorithms compared to traditional statistical methods. Specifically, many clinical deep learning models lack rigorous and robust techniques for conveying certainty (or lack thereof) in their predictions -- ultimately limiting their appeal for extensive use in medical decision-making. Furthermore, numerous demonstrations of algorithmic bias have increased hesitancy towards deployment of deep learning for clinical applications. To this end, we explore how conformal predictions can complement existing deep learning approaches by providing an intuitive way of expressing uncertainty while facilitating greater transparency to clinical users. In this paper, we conduct field interviews with radiologists to assess possible use-cases for conformal predictors. Using insights gathered from these interviews, we devise two clinical use-cases and empirically evaluate several methods of conformal predictions on a dermatology photography dataset for skin lesion classification. We show how to modify conformal predictions to be more adaptive to subgroup differences in patient skin tones through equalized coverage. Finally, we compare conformal prediction against measures of epistemic uncertainty.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.010 | 0.081 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".