Experimental support for genomic prediction of climate maladaptation using the machine learning approach Gradient Forests
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Gradient Forests is a machine learning algorithm that is gaining in popularity for studying the environmental drivers of genomic variation and for incorporating genomic information into climate change impact assessments. Here we provide the first experimental evaluation of the ability of ‘genomic offsets’ - a metric of climate maladaptation derived from Gradient Forests - to predict organismal responses to environmental change. We used high-throughput sequencing, genome scans, and several methods (including Gradient Forests) to identify candidate loci associated with climate adaptation in balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera L.). Individuals collected throughout balsam poplar’s range also were planted in two common garden experiments. We used Gradient Forests to relate candidate loci to environmental gradients and to predict the expected magnitude of response (i.e., the genetic offset) of populations when transplanted from their “home” environment to the new environments in the common gardens. We then compared the predicted genetic offsets to measurements of population performance in the common gardens. We found the expected inverse relationship between genetic offset and performance in the common gardens: populations with larger predicted genetic offsets performed worse in the common gardens than populations with smaller offsets. Also, genetic offset better predicted performance in the common gardens than did ‘naive’ climate distances. Our results provide preliminary evidence that genomic offsets may provide a first order estimate of the degree of expected maladaptation of populations exposed to rapid environmental change.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.014 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".