High latitude ground truthed assessment of NSRDB V3 irradiance using sky condition data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We perform a global horizontal (GHI) and direct normal (DNI) surface solar irradiance comparison between the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB V3) and four Canadian Solar Spectral Irradiance Meter Network (CanSIM) stations for 2018-2019. On average, under all-sky conditions, the GHI from the NSRDB had the mean absolute error (MAE) and the root mean square error (RMSE) of 14% and 18%, respectively, while for the DNI those metrics were 15% and 24%, respectively. By using the sky condition classification obtained from a spectral pyranometer, we estimated that 7% to 17% (depending on location studied) of NSRDB cloudy sky data is misattributed as such due to satellite parallax and snow cover errors. The lower bound on parallax error varied from 5% and 12%, while the upper bound on the cloud-snow discrimination error ranged from 2% to 5%.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".