Modelling and optimal strategy to control coffee berry borer
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Coffee berry borer Hypothenemus hampei (Coleoptera: Scolytidae), denoted CBB, is the most important insect pest of coffee worldwide, with a high impact on the economy of coffee producing countries. The insect spends a great part of its life cycle inside the coffee berry and causes severe crop losses. Biological control based on the use of an entomopathogenic fungus is a major alternative to chemical pesticides in order to control CBB. The fungus is sprayed on the coffee berries to kill CBB when the insects drill holes to penetrate inside the berries. Our aim in this work is to optimise the fungus application, using a modelling approach. We first formulate a mathematical model describing the infestation dynamics of coffee berries by CBB. We analyse the model and show that the stability of the pest‐free and coexistence equilibria depends on the basic reproduction number. To introduce a control variable corresponding to the application of an entomopathogenic fungus, we then extend the model and include the fungus dynamics. We formulate an optimal problem which consists in maximising the coffee yield, while minimising the control cost, as well as the CBB population for the next cropping season. The existence of the optimal control and the necessary optimality condition are established using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. The optimal control problem is solved numerically using the BOCOP software and simulations are provided, showing that the use of entomopathogenic fungus effectively controls CBB.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".