The Effect of Marketing Breadth and Competitive Spread on Category Growth
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Understanding the patterns of demand evolution for a new category is important for firms to effectively manage capacity planning, market and service operations, and research and development. Our objective is to analyze how marketing at the industry level affects the evolution of primary demand in different stages of the product life cycle. We characterize the aggregate marketing activities in two constructs: marketing breadth and competitive spread. The first construct reflects the spread of spending across different marketing instruments at the industry level, and the second construct reflects the spread of spending across different firms . Though both constructs are related to the spread of spending within a category, we find that they have qualitatively different effects on category growth. An econometric model making use of the hierarchical nature of time observations within countries is estimated for each category. First, we find that high degrees of spending breadth impede market growth when the number of competitors is small (the category is young) but accelerate market growth when the number of competitors is higher (the category is maturing). Second, we find that high levels of competitive spread decrease category growth when spending levels are relatively low. However, as spending levels increase, the negative effect of competitive spread on demand growth all but evaporates.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it