Deconvolutional Density Network: Modeling Free-Form Conditional Distributions
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Conditional density estimation (CDE) is the task of estimating the probability of an event conditioned on some inputs. A neural network (NN) can also be used to compute the output distribution for continuous-domain, which can be viewed as an extension of regression task. Nevertheless, it is difficult to explicitly approximate a distribution without knowing the information of its general form a priori. In order to fit an arbitrary conditional distribution, discretizing the continuous domain into bins is an effective strategy, as long as we have sufficiently narrow bins and very large data. However, collecting enough data is often hard to reach and falls far short of that ideal in many circumstances, especially in multivariate CDE for the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we demonstrate the benefits of modeling free-form conditional distributions using a deconvolution-based neural net framework, coping with data deficiency problems in discretization. It has the advantage of being flexible but also takes advantage of the hierarchical smoothness offered by the deconvolution layers. We compare our method to a number of other density-estimation approaches and show that our Deconvolutional Density Network (DDN) outperforms the competing methods on many univariate and multivariate tasks. The code of DDN is available at https://github.com/NBICLAB/DDN
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it