Increasing incidence and antimicrobial resistance in Escherichia coli bloodstream infections: a multinational population-based cohort study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background Escherichia coli is an important pathogen in humans and is the most common cause of bacterial bloodstream infections (BSIs). The objectives of our study were to determine factors associated with E. coli BSI incidence rate and third-generation cephalosporin resistance in a multinational population-based cohort. Methods We included all incident E. coli BSIs (2014–2018) from national (Finland) and regional (Australia [Canberra], Sweden [Skaraborg], and Canada [Calgary, Sherbrooke, and western interior]) surveillance. Incidence rates were directly age and sex standardized to the European Union 28-country 2018 population. Multivariable negative binomial and logistic regression models estimated factors significantly associated with E. coli BSI incidence rate and third-generation cephalosporin resistance, respectively. The explanatory variables considered for inclusion in both models were year (2014–2018), region (six areas), age (< 70-years-old and ≥ 70-years-old), and sex (female and male). Results We identified 31,889 E. coli BSIs from 40.7 million person-years of surveillance. Overall and third-generation cephalosporin-resistant standardized rates were 87.1 and 6.6 cases/100,000 person-years, respectively, and increased 14.0% and 40.1% over the five-year study. Overall, 7.8% (2483/31889) of E. coli BSIs were third-generation cephalosporin-resistant. Calgary, Canberra, Sherbrooke, and western interior had significantly lower E. coli BSI rates compared to Finland. The significant association between age and E. coli BSI rate varied with sex. Calgary, Canberra, and western interior had significantly greater odds of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant E. coli BSIs compared to Finland. Compared to 2014, the odds of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant E. coli BSIs were significantly increased in 2016, 2017, and 2018. The significant association between age and the odds of having a third-generation cephalosporin-resistant E. coli BSI varied with sex. Conclusions Increases in overall and third-generation cephalosporin-resistant standardized E. coli BSI rates were clinically important. Overall, E. coli BSI incidence rates were 40–104% greater than previous investigations from the same study areas. Region, sex, and age are important variables when analyzing E. coli BSI rates and third-generation cephalosporin resistance in E. coli BSIs. Considering E. coli is the most common cause of BSIs, this increasing burden and evolving third-generation cephalosporin resistance will have an important impact on human health, especially in aging populations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".