On the correlation between GDP and energy consumption in macroeconomic development
Bibliographic record
Abstract
There is substantial literature devoted to the study of the dependence between energy production and economic development. At the same time, the long-standing discussion of the relationship between the gross domestic product and consumption of primary energy resources, numbering thousands of publications, eventually degenerated into a dispute about econometric methods but did not give final results, which caused the need to resort to other approaches. This paper is an attempt to find a solution to this problem by the methods of theoretical mechanics and regression analysis of the relationship between GDP and energy production in macroeconomic development. Our case studies include the economies of Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine. In each case, we characterize the gross domestic product, recalculated at purchasing power parity in 2017 prices, and the consumption of primary energy resources (coal, oil, natural gas, hydro and nuclear energy, energy from renewable sources). Within the framework of the study, it was assumed that the development of any national economy over time is its path in the economic space, and the consumption of primary energy resources is due to dynamic characteristics inherent in macroeconomics, in particular, "mass", which serves as a measure of the inertia of the country's economic complex, the presence of an informal sector, etc. The path, traversed by macroeconomics in the economic space, is the gross domestic product accumulated over time. The observation period is from 1990 to 2019, that is – 30 years. The use of the theory of classical mechanics, in particular – kinematics and dynamics, is justified by the fact that macroeconomics in its development requires the expenditure of energy resources, and this likens it to a machine that moves in a certain space that models a given economyсs. The article introduces methodological approaches to defining the conventional mass of macroeconomics, accelerating its movement, expenditure of energy resources for the functioning of the formal sector of the national economy, the efficiency of energy use in the formal sector.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.014 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".