Non-invasive imaging criteria for the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in non-cirrhotic patients with chronic hepatitis B
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
•Imaging criteria defined by the EASL and LI-RADS enable the diagnosis of HCC without biopsy in patients with cirrhosis.•A biopsy is recommended in all patients without cirrhosis.•Imaging criteria had a good performance in patients with HBV infection without cirrhosis when pre-test probability was >70%.•HCC may be diagnosed based solely on imaging criteria in patients with HBV subject to HCC screening (i.e. PAGE-B score >9). Background & AimsCriteria defined by the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) and Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS) enable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) diagnosis based on imaging in cirrhosis. Non-cirrhotic patients require biopsy given the lower pre-test probability of HCC. The objective of our study was to assess the performance of EASL and LI-RADS criteria for the diagnosis of HCC in non-cirrhotic patients with chronic HBV infection.MethodsThis was a cross-sectional study performed at a referral center. We included all patients with HBV without cirrhosis with focal liver lesions who underwent contrast-enhanced CT or MRI at our clinic between 2005-2018. Studies were reviewed by 2 radiologists blinded to the diagnosis.ResultsWe included 280 patients, median age was 56.8 (IQR 48.2-65.45) years and 223 (80%) were male. In 191 (79%) cases the lesion was found as a result of screening. Cirrhosis was excluded based on pathology in 252 (90%) cases. We assessed 338 nodules: 257 (76%) HCC, 40 (12%) non-HCC malignant lesions, and 41 (12%) benign lesions. EASL criteria and LR-5/LR-tumor-in-vein (TIV) categories had a 100% agreement in categorizing lesions as HCC, and 226 nodules (67%) were classified as HCCs. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 82.1 (76.9-86.6), 81.5 (71.3-89.2), 93.4 (89.3-96.2), and 58.9 (49.2-68.1), respectively. When the pre-test probability of HCC is >70%, estimated as a PAGE-B score above 9, and EASL or LR-5/LR-TIV criteria are met, post-test probability would be >90%.ConclusionsEASL criteria and LR-5/LR-TIV categories show a positive predictive value in patients with HBV without cirrhosis that is comparable to that seen in patients with cirrhosis. These criteria can be used when the pre-test probability of HCC is >70%.Lay summaryCurrent guidelines recommend performing a biopsy to confirm the diagnosis of presumed hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients without cirrhosis. We showed that specific imaging criteria had a 100% agreement for categorizing lesions as HCC, with a positive predictive value of 93.4%. These imaging criteria could be used to diagnose HCC in HBV patients without cirrhosis with a pre-test probability of HCC of ≥70%, avoiding the need for a liver biopsy. Criteria defined by the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) and Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS) enable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) diagnosis based on imaging in cirrhosis. Non-cirrhotic patients require biopsy given the lower pre-test probability of HCC. The objective of our study was to assess the performance of EASL and LI-RADS criteria for the diagnosis of HCC in non-cirrhotic patients with chronic HBV infection. This was a cross-sectional study performed at a referral center. We included all patients with HBV without cirrhosis with focal liver lesions who underwent contrast-enhanced CT or MRI at our clinic between 2005-2018. Studies were reviewed by 2 radiologists blinded to the diagnosis. We included 280 patients, median age was 56.8 (IQR 48.2-65.45) years and 223 (80%) were male. In 191 (79%) cases the lesion was found as a result of screening. Cirrhosis was excluded based on pathology in 252 (90%) cases. We assessed 338 nodules: 257 (76%) HCC, 40 (12%) non-HCC malignant lesions, and 41 (12%) benign lesions. EASL criteria and LR-5/LR-tumor-in-vein (TIV) categories had a 100% agreement in categorizing lesions as HCC, and 226 nodules (67%) were classified as HCCs. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 82.1 (76.9-86.6), 81.5 (71.3-89.2), 93.4 (89.3-96.2), and 58.9 (49.2-68.1), respectively. When the pre-test probability of HCC is >70%, estimated as a PAGE-B score above 9, and EASL or LR-5/LR-TIV criteria are met, post-test probability would be >90%. EASL criteria and LR-5/LR-TIV categories show a positive predictive value in patients with HBV without cirrhosis that is comparable to that seen in patients with cirrhosis. These criteria can be used when the pre-test probability of HCC is >70%.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it