Causal Discovery of Flight Service Process Based on Event Sequence
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The development of the civil aviation industry has continuously increased the requirements for the efficiency of airport ground support services. In the existing ground support research, there has not yet been a process model that directly obtains support from the ground support log to study the causal relationship between service nodes and flight delays. Most ground support studies mainly use machine learning methods to predict flight delays, and the flight support model they are based on is an ideal model. The study did not conduct an in-depth study of the causal mechanism behind the ground support link and did not reveal the true cause of flight delays. Therefore, there is a certain deviation in the prediction of flight delays by machine learning, and there is a certain deviation between the ideal model based on the research and the actual service process. Therefore, it is of practical significance to obtain the process model from the guarantee log and analyze its causality. However, the existing process causal factor discovery methods only do certain research when the assumption of causal sufficiency is established and does not consider the existence of latent variables. Therefore, this article proposes a framework to realize the discovery of process causal factors without assuming causal sufficiency. The optimized fuzzy mining process model is used as the service benchmark model, and the local causal discovery algorithm is used to discover the causal factors. Under this framework, this paper proposes a new Markov blanket discovery algorithm that does not assume causal sufficiency to discover causal factors and uses benchmark data sets for testing. Finally, the actual flight service data are used for causal discovery among flight service nodes. The local causal discovery algorithm proposed in this paper has a certain competitive advantage in accuracy, F1, and other aspects of the existing causal discovery algorithm. It avoids the occurrence of its dimensional disaster. Through the in-depth analysis of the flight safety reason node discovered by this method, it is found that the unreasonable scheduling of flight support personnel is an important reason for frequent flight delays at the airport.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".