Inexact Fuzzy Stochastic Chance Constraint Programming for Emergency Evacuation in Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant under Uncertainty
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Nuclear power accidents are one of the most dangerous disasters posing a lethal threat to human health and have detrimental effects lasting for decades. Therefore, emergency evacuation is important to minimize injuries and prevent lethal consequences resulting from a nuclear power accident. An inexact fuzzy stochastic chance constrained programming (IFSCCP) method is developed to address various uncertainties in evacuation management problems. It integrates the interval-parameter programming (IPP) and fuzzy stochastic chance constrained programming (FSCCP) methods into a general framework, in which the IPP method addresses the uncertainties presented as intervals defined by crisp lower and upper bounds, and the FCCP treat the dual-uncertainties expressed as fuzzy random variables. The measures of possibility and necessity were employed to convert the fuzzy random variables into crisp values to reflect the decision maker’s pessimistic and optimistic preferences. The IFSCCP model is applied to support nuclear emergency evacuation management in the Qinshan Nuclear Power Site, which is one of the largest nuclear plants in China. The results pro-vide stable intervals for the objective function and decision variables with different fuzzy and probability confidence levels regarding the local residents’ distribution. Nine scenarios are analyzed to reflect the impacts of the imprecision (fuzziness and randomness) associated with the size of the population in a plume emergency planning zone. The results are valuable for supporting local decision makers to generate effective emergency evacuation strategies.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it