Early Detection of Symptom Exacerbation in Patients With SARS-CoV-2 Infection Using the Fitbit Charge 3 (DEXTERITY): Pilot Evaluation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background Some patients with COVID-19 experienced sudden death due to rapid symptom deterioration. Thus, it is important to predict COVID-19 symptom exacerbation at an early stage prior to increasing severity in patients. Patients with COVID-19 could experience a unique “silent hypoxia” at an early stage of the infection when they are apparently asymptomatic, but with rather low SpO2 (oxygen saturation) levels. In order to continuously monitor SpO2 in daily life, a high-performance wearable device, such as the Apple Watch or Fitbit, has become commercially available to monitor several biometric data including steps, resting heart rate (RHR), physical activity, sleep quality, and estimated oxygen variation (EOV). Objective This study aimed to test whether EOV measured by the wearable device Fitbit can predict COVID-19 symptom exacerbation. Methods We recruited patients with COVID-19 from August to November 2020. Patients were asked to wear the Fitbit for 30 days, and biometric data including EOV and RHR were extracted. EOV is a relative physiological measure that reflects users’ SpO2 levels during sleep. We defined a high EOV signal as a patient’s oxygen level exhibiting a significant dip and recovery within the index period, and a high RHR signal as daily RHR exceeding 5 beats per day compared with the minimum RHR of each patient in the study period. We defined successful prediction as the appearance of those signals within 2 days before the onset of the primary outcome. The primary outcome was the composite of deaths of all causes, use of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, use of mechanical ventilation, oxygenation, and exacerbation of COVID-19 symptoms, irrespective of readmission. We also assessed each outcome individually as secondary outcomes. We made weekly phone calls to discharged patients to check on their symptoms. Results We enrolled 23 patients with COVID-19 diagnosed by a positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction test. The patients had a mean age of 50.9 (SD 20) years, and 70% (n=16) were female. Each patient wore the Fitbit for 30 days. COVID-19 symptom exacerbation occurred in 6 (26%) patients. We were successful in predicting exacerbation using EOV signals in 4 out of 5 cases (sensitivity=80%, specificity=90%), whereas the sensitivity and specificity of high RHR signals were 50% and 80%, respectively, both lower than those of high EOV signals. Coincidental obstructive sleep apnea syndrome confirmed by polysomnography was detected in 1 patient via consistently high EOV signals. Conclusions This pilot study successfully detected early COVID-19 symptom exacerbation by measuring EOV, which may help to identify the early signs of COVID-19 exacerbation. Trial Registration University Hospital Medical Information Network Clinical Trials Registry UMIN000041421; https://upload.umin.ac.jp/cgi-open-bin/ctr_e/ctr_view.cgi?recptno=R000047290
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".