Machine learning risk prediction model for acute coronary syndrome and death from use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in administrative data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Our aim was to investigate the usefulness of machine learning approaches on linked administrative health data at the population level in predicting older patients' one-year risk of acute coronary syndrome and death following the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). Patients from a Western Australian cardiovascular population who were supplied with NSAIDs between 1 Jan 2003 and 31 Dec 2004 were identified from Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme data. Comorbidities from linked hospital admissions data and medication history were inputs. Admissions for acute coronary syndrome or death within one year from the first supply date were outputs. Machine learning classification methods were used to build models to predict ACS and death. Model performance was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), sensitivity and specificity. There were 68,889 patients in the NSAIDs cohort with mean age 76 years and 54% were female. 1882 patients were admitted for acute coronary syndrome and 5405 patients died within one year after their first supply of NSAIDs. The multi-layer neural network, gradient boosting machine and support vector machine were applied to build various classification models. The gradient boosting machine achieved the best performance with an average AUC-ROC of 0.72 predicting ACS and 0.84 predicting death. Machine learning models applied to linked administrative data can potentially improve adverse outcome risk prediction. Further investigation of additional data and approaches are required to improve the performance for adverse outcome risk prediction.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.013 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".