Evolutionary conservatism will limit responses to climate change in the tropics
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Rapid species turnover in tropical mountains has fascinated biologists for centuries. A popular explanation for this heightened beta diversity is that climatic stability at low latitudes promotes the evolution of narrow thermal tolerance ranges, leading to local adaptation, evolutionary divergence and parapatric speciation along elevational gradients. However, an emerging consensus from research spanning phylogenetics, biogeography and behavioural ecology is that this process rarely, if ever, occurs. Instead, closely related species typically occupy a similar elevational niche, while species with divergent elevational niches tend to be more distantly related. These results suggest populations have responded to past environmental change not by adapting and diverging in place, but instead by shifting their distributions to tightly track climate over time. We argue that tropical species are likely to respond similarly to ongoing and future climate warming, an inference supported by evidence from recent range shifts. In the absence of widespread in situ adaptation to new climate regimes by tropical taxa, conservation planning should prioritize protecting large swaths of habitat to facilitate movement.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".