Agreement between local and central reading of endoscopic disease activity in ulcerative colitis: results from the tofacitinib OCTAVE trials
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Endoscopy is routine in trials of ulcerative colitis therapies. AIM: To investigate agreement between central and local Mayo endoscopic subscore (MES) reads in the OCTAVE programme METHODS: Flexible sigmoidoscopy was performed in tofacitinib induction (OCTAVE Induction 1&2, NCT01465763 and NCT01458951), maintenance (OCTAVE Sustain, NCT01458574) and open-label, long-term extension (OCTAVE Open, NCT01470612) studies. Kappa statistics and Bowker's tests evaluated agreement/disagreement between centrally and locally read MES, with potential determinants of differences analysed by logistic regression. RESULTS: Moderate-to-substantial agreement was observed between central and local reads at screening (77.1% agreement; kappa 0.62 [95% confidence interval 0.59-0.66]), OCTAVE Induction 1&2 week (Wk) 8 (63.8%; 0.62 [0.59-0.66]), OCTAVE Sustain Wk 52 (55.6%; 0.56 [0.50-0.62]) and for induction non-responders at OCTAVE Open month 2 (59.9%; 0.54 [0.48-0.60]). Where disagreements occurred, local reads were systematically lower than central reads at OCTAVE Induction 1&2 Wk 8, OCTAVE Sustain Wk 52 and OCTAVE Open month 2 (Bowker's P < 0.0001); this difference was not observed at screening (P = 0.0852). Using multivariable logistic regression, geographical region, C-reactive protein (Wk 8), partial Mayo score (Wk 8) and prior tumour necrosis factor antagonist failure were associated with disparity at OCTAVE Induction 1&2 Wk 8 (P < 0.05). In OCTAVE Induction 1&2 and OCTAVE Sustain, significantly higher proportions of patients endoscopic improvement, remission and endoscopic remission with tofacitinib vs placebo, using either central or local reads. CONCLUSION: Moderate-to-substantial agreement was observed between central and local endoscopic reads. Where disagreements occurred, local reads were systematically lower than central reads at most timepoints, suggesting potential bias. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01465763, NCT01458951, NCT01458574, NCT01470612.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.078 | 0.088 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".