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Record W320359112

Overflight Traffic Analysis for Forecasting

2011· article· en· W320359112 on OpenAlex
Paul Cripwell

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueTransportation Research Board 90th Annual MeetingTransportation Research Board · 2011
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicAviation Industry Analysis and Trends
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsAir traffic controlTransport engineeringTraverseService (business)Traffic analysisEconometricsGeographyEngineeringEconomicsEconomyStatisticsMathematicsCartography
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The analysis of historical air traffic is used to determine trends in traffic that will assist in the forecast process: a process that begins with externally supplied forecasts that use econometrics as a base to produce passengers and movements as an output, and is then refined through the results of traffic analysis. The paper begins by defining the service charge structure for the Company, then delves deeper into the analysis of overflight traffic. These flights traverse Canadian Domestic Airspace but neither land, nor take-off from a Canadian airport. Using the defined markets: Atlantic, Asia and the Far East, and Alaska monthly growth rates are examined for potential trends. While frequency may be a primary driver underlying much of the growth, the service charge structure includes the components of aircraft size (weight) and distance, factors that are not included in external forecasts. The paper presents the growth rates of all three components (frequency, aircraft size and distance) within these markets to identify potential areas for further analysis, and then examines each individual market in more detail, in order to determine the causes of traffic change and their impact on a forecast on a month-by-month basis.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.009
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow), Science and technology studies, Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.212
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0090.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0040.007
Science and technology studies0.0010.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0040.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.241
GPT teacher head0.355
Teacher spread0.114 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it