Agent-based modelling reveals a disproportionate exposure of females and calves to a local increase in shipping and associated noise in an endangered beluga population
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Vessel underwater noise (VUN) is one of the main threats to the recovery of the endangered St. Lawrence Estuary Beluga population (SLEB). The 1% yearly population decline indicates that the cumulative threats are already beyond sustainable limits for the SLEB. However, a potential threefold increase in shipping traffic is expected within its critical habitat in the coming years resulting from proposed port-industrial projects in the Saguenay River. Current data indicate that SLEB typically use multiple sectors within their summer range, likely leading to differential VUN exposure among individuals. The degree of displacement and spatial mixing among habitats are not yet well understood but can be simulated under different assumptions about movement patterns at the individual and population levels. Here, we propose using an agent-based model (ABM) to explore the biases introduced when estimating exposure to stressors such as VUN, where individual-centric movement patterns and habitat use are derived from different spatial behaviour assumptions. Simulations of the ABM revealed that alternative behavioural assumptions for individual belugas can significantly alter the estimation of instantaneous and cumulative exposure of SLEB to VUN. Our simulations also predicted that with the projected traffic increase in the Saguenay River, the characteristics making it a quiet zone for SLEB within its critical habitat would be nullified. Whereas spending more time in the Saguenay than in the Estuary allows belugas to be exposed to less noise under the current traffic regime, this relationship is reversed under the increased traffic scenario. Considering the importance of the Saguenay for SLEB females and calves, our results support the need to understand its role as a possible acoustic refuge for this endangered population. This underlines the need to understand and describe individual and collective beluga behaviours using the best available data to conduct a thorough acoustic impact assessment concerning future increased traffic.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".