The U.S.‐Canadian trade and exchange rate uncertainty: Asymmetric evidence from commodity trade
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Although the main goal of the original NAFTA treaty was to promote trade among the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, exchange rate uncertainty among the members is still a factor affecting trade. A previous study that assessed asymmetric effects of the real peso‐dollar volatility on trade flows between Mexico and the U.S. used the nonlinear ARDL approach and found that increased (decreased) volatility hurts (boosts) exports of nearly 50% of the industries that trade between the two countries. In this paper, we carry out the same analysis using trade data from 34 (24) large U.S. exporting (importing) industries to (from) Canada. We find that nearly 38% of the industries are affected by the U.S. dollar‐Canadian dollar volatility. However, the majority of the affected industries export more when exchange rate volatility increases or decreases. It appears that traders are more risk tolerant in the case of U.S.‐Canada trade but risk averse in the case of U.S.‐Mexico.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it