Research on Kick Detection Model Based on Machine Learning
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract With the expansion of oil and gas exploration and the development of complex oil and gas resource areas, the probability of risk is increasing. Kick is one of the high-risk risks of drilling, and timely and accurate early warning is increasingly important. Based on the kick generation mechanism, kick characterization parameters are preliminarily selected. According to the characteristics of the data and previous research progress, Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Fully Connected Neural Network (FNN), and Long Short-term Memory Neural Network (LSTM) are established using experimental data from Memorial University of Newfoundland. The test results show that the accuracy of the SVM-linear model is 0.952, and the missing alarm, the false alarm rate is only 0.064, 0.035. Also, through the analysis of the kick response time, the lag time of the SVM-linear model is 3.6s, and the comprehensive equivalent time is 23.13, which shows the best performance. This paper lays a good foundation for the establishment of an intelligent kick early warning model.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".