Synchrony in population dynamics of juvenile Atlantic salmon: analyzing spatiotemporal variation and the influence of river flow and demography
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Dispersal and shared environmental conditions can both synchronize the dynamics of local populations, but disentangling their relative influence on dynamics is challenging. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate the synchrony of a metapopulation of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) composed of 18 populations in Brittany, France, including a 24-year time series of the abundances of juveniles. We estimated the spatial synchrony at a regional and local spatial scale over the study period. We found a strong regional synchrony despite spatiotemporal variability of local synchrony in the abundance of juveniles. We then explored the drivers of synchrony, including environmental conditions (aspects of river flow) and abundance of adult breeders. This revealed that summer low-flow conditions seemed to synchronize the abundances of juveniles more than the synchrony in the abundance of adult breeders, suggesting a Moran effect. Given that drought conditions are expected to become more common with climate change, our work highlights the potentially strong synchronizing effect of summer low flow on the dynamics of local salmon populations and the benefits of considering synchrony at multiple scales.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".