Driver guidance and rebalancing in ride-hailing systems through mixture density networks and stochastic programming
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We propose a data-driven optimization model to reduce riders' wait time for vehicle guidance and rebalancing operations, considering the rider demands are under uncertainty. Instead of assuming a pre-defined rider demand distribution, we propose a data-driven framework that integrates Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) and a two-stage stochastic programming model. The integrated framework can compute high-quality guidance and rebalancing solutions that benefit drivers and riders in the ride-hailing system by leveraging the time-series historical data from real data sets. To prove the performance and effectiveness of our approach, we conduct a group of simulations based on the New York High Volume For-Hire Vehicle (HVFHV) trip records. The validation results show that the proposed method outperforms the data-driven deterministic models using GRU and moving average methods. Most significantly, the riders' average wait time using our proposed approach can be reduced by 75.9% compared to the batched matching mechanism.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".