Community modeling reveals the importance of elevation and land cover in shaping migratory bird abundance in the Andes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The tropical Andes are characterized by extreme topographic and climatic complexity, which has likely contributed to their outstanding current species diversity, composed of many range-restricted species. However, little is known about how the distribution and abundance of highly mobile organisms, like long-distance migratory birds, varies across different land covers, elevations, and climatic conditions within the Andes. We conducted 1,606 distance-sampling point counts across the Colombian Andes, spanning elevations from 253 to 3,708 m, a range of precipitation regimes and representative land covers. We then employed a novel application of a multispecies hierarchical modeling approach to evaluate how elevation, local land cover, aboveground woody biomass, cloud cover, precipitation, and seasonality in precipitation shape the abundance of the migratory land bird community in the Andes. We detected 1,824 individuals of 29 species of migratory land birds, six of which were considered incidental in our study region. We modeled the abundance of the remaining 23 species, while considering observer and time of day effects on detectability. We found that both elevation and land cover had an overriding influence on the abundance of migratory species across the Andes, with strong evidence for a mid-elevation peak in abundance, and species-specific responses to both variables. As a community, migratory birds had the highest mean abundance in shade coffee plantations, secondary forest, and mature forest. Aboveground woody biomass did not affect the abundance of all species as a group, but a few showed strong responses to this variable. Contrary to predictions of a positive correlation between abundance and precipitation, we found no evidence for community-level responses to precipitation, aside for a weak tendency for birds to select areas with intermediate levels of precipitation. This novel use of a multispecies model sheds new light on the mechanisms shaping the winter distribution of migratory birds and highlights the importance of elevation and land cover types over climatic variables in the context of the Colombian Andes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".