Mendelian Randomisation Study of Smoking, Alcohol, and Coffee Drinking in Relation to Parkinson’s Disease
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Previous studies showed that lifestyle behaviors (cigarette smoking, alcohol, coffee) are inversely associated with Parkinson's disease (PD). The prodromal phase of PD raises the possibility that these associations may be explained by reverse causation. OBJECTIVE: To examine associations of lifestyle behaviors with PD using two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) and the potential for survival and incidence-prevalence biases. METHODS: We used summary statistics from publicly available studies to estimate the association of genetic polymorphisms with lifestyle behaviors, and from Courage-PD (7,369 cases, 7,018 controls; European ancestry) to estimate the association of these variants with PD. We used the inverse-variance weighted method to compute odds ratios (ORIVW) of PD and 95%confidence intervals (CI). Significance was determined using a Bonferroni-corrected significance threshold (p = 0.017). RESULTS: We found a significant inverse association between smoking initiation and PD (ORIVW per 1-SD increase in the prevalence of ever smoking = 0.74, 95%CI = 0.60-0.93, p = 0.009) without significant directional pleiotropy. Associations in participants ≤67 years old and cases with disease duration ≤7 years were of a similar size. No significant associations were observed for alcohol and coffee drinking. In reverse MR, genetic liability toward PD was not associated with smoking or coffee drinking but was positively associated with alcohol drinking. CONCLUSION: Our findings are in favor of an inverse association between smoking and PD that is not explained by reverse causation, confounding, and survival or incidence-prevalence biases. Genetic liability toward PD was positively associated with alcohol drinking. Conclusions on the association of alcohol and coffee drinking with PD are hampered by insufficient statistical power.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".