Bibliographic record
Abstract
The cryptocurrency market has experienced stunning growth, with market value exceeding USD 1.5 trillion. We use a DCC-MGARCH model to examine the return and volatility spillovers across three distinct classes of cryptocurrencies: coins, tokens, and stablecoins. Our results demonstrate that conditional correlations are time-varying, peaking during the COVID-19 pandemic sell-off of March 2020, and that both ARCH and GARCH effects play an important role in determining conditional volatility among cryptocurrencies. We find a bi-directional relationship for returns and long-term (GARCH) spillovers between BTC and ETH, but only a unidirectional short-term (ARCH) spillover effect from BTC to ETH. We also find spillovers from BTC and ETH to USDT, but no influence running in the other direction. Our results suggest that USDT does not currently play an important role in volatility transmission across cryptocurrency markets. We also demonstrate applications of our results to hedging and optimal portfolio construction.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".