Effectiveness of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccines against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 outcomes in Ontario, Canada: a test-negative design study
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Objectives To estimate the effectiveness of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines against symptomatic infection and severe outcomes. Design We applied a test-negative design study to linked laboratory, vaccination, and health administrative databases, and used multivariable logistic regression adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics associated with SARS-CoV-2 and vaccine receipt to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic infection and severe outcomes. Setting Ontario, Canada between 14 December 2020 and 19 April 2021. Participants Community-dwelling adults aged ≥16 years who had COVID-19 symptoms and were tested for SARS-CoV-2. Interventions Pfizer-BioNTech’s BNT162b2 or Moderna’s mRNA-1273 vaccine. Main outcome measures Laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR; hospitalization/death associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Results Among 324,033 symptomatic individuals, 53,270 (16.4%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2 and 21,272 (6.6%) received ≥1 vaccine dose. Among test-positive cases, 2,479 (4.7%) had a severe outcome. VE against symptomatic infection ≥14 days after receiving only 1 dose was 60% (95%CI, 57 to 64%), increasing from 48% (95%CI, 41 to 54%) at 14–20 days after the first dose to 71% (95%CI, 63 to 78%) at 35–41 days. VE ≥7 days after 2 doses was 91% (95%CI, 89 to 93%). Against severe outcomes, VE ≥14 days after 1 dose was 70% (95%CI, 60 to 77%), increasing from 62% (95%CI, 44 to 75%) at 14–20 days to 91% (95%CI, 73 to 97%) at ≥35 days, whereas VE ≥7 days after 2 doses was 98% (95%CI, 88 to 100%). For adults aged ≥70 years, VE estimates were lower for intervals shortly after receiving 1 dose, but were comparable to younger adults for all intervals after 28 days. After 2 doses, we observed high VE against E484K-positive variants. Conclusions Two doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are highly effective against symptomatic infection and severe outcomes. Single-dose effectiveness is lower, particularly for older adults shortly after the first dose.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.019 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it