Assessing the Performance of a New Artificial Intelligence–Driven Diagnostic Support Tool Using Medical Board Exam Simulations: Clinical Vignette Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Diagnostic decision support systems (DDSS) are computer programs aimed to improve health care by supporting clinicians in the process of diagnostic decision-making. Previous studies on DDSS demonstrated their ability to enhance clinicians' diagnostic skills, prevent diagnostic errors, and reduce hospitalization costs. Despite the potential benefits, their utilization in clinical practice is limited, emphasizing the need for new and improved products. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to conduct a preliminary analysis of the diagnostic performance of "Kahun," a new artificial intelligence-driven diagnostic tool. METHODS: Diagnostic performance was evaluated based on the program's ability to "solve" clinical cases from the United States Medical Licensing Examination Step 2 Clinical Skills board exam simulations that were drawn from the case banks of 3 leading preparation companies. Each case included 3 expected differential diagnoses. The cases were entered into the Kahun platform by 3 blinded junior physicians. For each case, the presence and the rank of the correct diagnoses within the generated differential diagnoses list were recorded. Each diagnostic performance was measured in two ways: first, as diagnostic sensitivity, and second, as case-specific success rates that represent diagnostic comprehensiveness. RESULTS: The study included 91 clinical cases with 78 different chief complaints and a mean number of 38 (SD 8) findings for each case. The total number of expected diagnoses was 272, of which 174 were different (some appeared more than once). Of the 272 expected diagnoses, 231 (87.5%; 95% CI 76-99) diagnoses were suggested within the top 20 listed diagnoses, 209 (76.8%; 95% CI 66-87) were suggested within the top 10, and 168 (61.8%; 95% CI 52-71) within the top 5. The median rank of correct diagnoses was 3 (IQR 2-6). Of the 91 expected diagnoses, 62 (68%; 95% CI 59-78) of the cases were suggested within the top 20 listed diagnoses, 44 (48%; 95% CI 38-59) within the top 10, and 24 (26%; 95% CI 17-35) within the top 5. Of the 91 expected diagnoses, in 87 (96%; 95% CI 91-100), at least 2 out of 3 of the cases' expected diagnoses were suggested within the top 20 listed diagnoses; 78 (86%; 95% CI 79-93) were suggested within the top 10; and 61 (67%; 95% CI 57-77) within the top 5. CONCLUSIONS: The diagnostic support tool evaluated in this study demonstrated good diagnostic accuracy and comprehensiveness; it also had the ability to manage a wide range of clinical findings.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.049 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".