On the Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Trade Flows: Evidence from the U.S.-Canada Trade in Forest Products
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Up to now, relatively little attention has been given to the asymmetric effects of exchange rates on the trade balance in the forest economics literature. Thus, the primary thrust of this article is to probe the asymmetric impacts of exchange rates on exports and imports in the context of bilateral trade of forest products between the U.S.A. and Canada. To this end, we use the method of the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL). We discover that there is evidence that ups and downs of exchange rates appear to have asymmetric impacts on U.S. forest product trade with Canada in the long-run, though not in the short-run. Additionally, the dollar’s depreciation has a more substantial long-run effect than appreciation.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it